In previous decades people with high risk mortgage loans often left financial companies holding the keys when rates started to go up.
But according to a recent study by First American Real Estate Solutions, even if rates do start to climb this year, the number of defaults this time around is not likely to go much higher than 110 billion.
The study estimated 1.4 million of 7.7 million adjustable rate mortgages sold in 2004 and 2005 would be at risk of default. But even if that many households were to default, the financial fallout would be limited.
The reason: the US economy is so strong this time around, and so diversified that this amount represents only about one percent of total national homeowners’ equity, and it would be spread out over two or three years. So the economy would be more than able to absorb the losses.
**Factors driving continued Real Estate boom
While many real estate experts predict a slight slowdown in real estate and mortgage activity during 2006, most also see steady gains, with continued economic growth and well-balanced supplydemand ratio in the housing market.
Some of the factors driving the real estate market:
+ Continued low interest rates – Although rates climbed slightly in 2005, they are still at historic lows. Homes that were purchased over the last few years with interest-only and adjustable-rate mortgages will enter the refinancing market. Homeowners will refinance to take advantage of increased equity values, and to convert to fixed-rate mortgages as rates start to climb.
+ Internet Effect – The internet gives buyers the opportunity to search MLS listings without going through an agent or broker. Not only have consumers become better informed and better educated about opportunities, but the entire home-buying process now takes less time than just four or five years ago. This trend will continue to accelerate.
+ Healthy economy leads to more relocation – A vibrant economy and strong residential real estate activity drives commercial activity as well. And that usually leads to corporate relocations as people follow business and employment opportunities. That means increased real estate activity.
+ Generation X effect – As baby boomers begin retiring and moving out of the real estate buy and sell cycle, Generation Xers have taken their place with a vengeance. The incomes of Gen Xers are generally higher than the previous generation, and financing is easier to get, so they have been able to buy more expensive homes sooner than boomers did. Gen Xers now make up 47% of the total homeownership segment in the U.S., and have an especially large impact on downtown and suburban communities.
**Many UK mortgages not covered by life insurance
A recent report by Sainsbury’s Bank estimates that as many as 4.2 million people in the UK have mortgages that are not covered by life insurance. That means that as much as GBP217 billion worth of mortgages are open to be passed on to loved ones. This number has grown significantly over the last few years as the number of new mortgage approvals has grown.
Of course inheriting the debt associated with a property would be accompanied by ownership of the property itself. And with current prices on the rise, most people, even if forced to sell a property because they could not pay the mortgage, would not be as badly off as the report might suggest.
**UK borrowers opt for 2 year fixed mortgages
According to a recent survey of mortgage purchases in the UK, there was a significant shift in January towards 2 year fixed mortgages. In January 39 percent of borrowers chose this option compared to 27 per cent in December.
Interestingly enough, only 9 percent of buyers opted for a longer term fixed mortgage in January, compared to 16 percent in December. This was in spite of longer term mortgages (up to 10 years fixed rate) at less than 5 percent.
The popularity of a 2 year fixed mortgages suggests that buyers assume rates have bottomed out, at least in the medium term, but are not convinced they may not go down further two or three years from now.
Tags: Adjustable Rate Mortgages, Equity Values, Estate Experts, Financial Fallout, Fixed Rate Mortgages, High Risk Mortgage Loans, Home Buying Process, Housing Market, Internet Effect, Low Interest Rates, Lows, Mls Listings, Mortgage Activity, Mortgage Rates, Mortgage Report, Real Estate Boom, Real Estate Solutions, Report Mortgage, Residential Real Estate, Vibrant Economy
Mortgage Equity Withdrawal is the formal name for equity refinance, reverse mortgages or simply home loans based on equity (as the security for the loan).
Mortgage Equity Withdrawal rose to 8.7 billion pounds in the second quarter of this year to its highest since the third quarter last year, official data showed (on Tuesday 4th Oct 2005).
Mortgage Equity Withdrawal is a measure of the equity Britons have extracted from their homes but which they have not re-invested in property.
Sharply rising house prices in the last few years have encouraged a trend where Britons refinance their mortgages to extract cash which many economists say has helped support spending.
The Bank of England said that Mortgage Equity Withdrawal was up sharply from 6.437 billion in the first quarter of this year although it is still well below the 14.5 billion seen one year ago, when house prices were rising more than 20 percent annually.
The Bank of England has since cut interest rates by a quarter of 1% to 4.5 percent which could support Mortgage Equity Withdrawal in coming months, particularly as there are signs that the property market may be stabilizing after a year of stagnation.
As a percentage of post-tax income, Mortgage Equity Withdrawal rose to 4.2 percent from 3.2 percent in the first quarter of the year but is well down on 7.3 percent seen a year ago.
” Mortgage Equity Withdrawal appears to have found its way into increased holdings of financial assets (equities, bonds) as much as extra spending,” said Geoffrey Dicks, UK economist at RBS Financial Markets.
“Generally the pick-up in Mortgage Equity Withdrawal is probably indicative of more `normalization’ of the housing market but while it is saved rather than spent, the policy implications are not huge.”
Official data last month (September) showed the saving ratio rose to 5 percent in the second quarter of this year from 4.5 percent in Q1 (also of this year).
Separate figures showed UK residential construction barely grew in September, putting in its weakest monthly performance since May.
But what does this mean in real terms?
There are several key points in this statement, these are:
1.People are refinancing their homes because of increased value
2.People are not necessarily spending the money on the property
3.People are not necessarily spending the money in the high street
These three points are important to all of us, not just the policy makers. Heres why.
Lets consider the first point, people are refinancing there homes because the equity has grown rapidly.
This statement tells us that the housing market although not sky rocketing as it was a couple of years ago, is none the less still rising.
The second point tells us that when people effectively withdraw this money it is not to improve the home itself, hence the equity of the property will not grow at a better rate than market rate.
The third point is perhaps most telling, people are not taking the money and spending it in a hap hazard manner but are potentially saving it (bonds, shares, bank accounts).
So what do this mean for us?
Well, its a bit of mixed signals heads up if you like.
The general population (property owners) are slipping into ever increasing levels of debt (if youre refinancing your mortgage or freeing up equity as the agents put it, you are effectively borrowing money) unless its a reverse mortgage.
People who are refinancing are not improving the quality of the property with the money and so if the market takes a fall their property will devalue as much as the next property (whereas if theyd returned some of the capital into improvements they would at least be sitting on a lesser slump in value).
Finally, and perhaps the most damming sign is that people are saving more, this is not a good sign. In a healthy economy the rate of saving is low, this is primarily because confidence is high (people arent worried about the bills or their jobs) but the fact that more people are now starting to save money rather then spending it means that the retail sector will be taking a hit, this means that the bottom end jobs will be in danger, this in turn has a knock on effect in the service sector and becomes a vicious circle the end result being market stagnentation .
But what this trend does illustrate quite simply is that you can potentially get more money back in savings interest than you pay out in refinancing interest so at the moment the smart moneys in equity refinance.
Tags: Bank Of England, Britons, Construc, Financial Assets, Financial Markets, Home Loans, House Prices, Housing Market, Income Mortgage, Loan Mortgage, Mortgage Equity, Mortgage Refinancing, Normalization, Policy Implications, Q1, Rbs, Refinance Mortgages, Refinancing Mortgage, Reverse Mortgages, Stagnation